According to The Kobeissi Letter, if the average tariff rate remains at 29%, inflation is anticipated to rise to approximately 5.0%-5.5%. UBS corroborates this estimate, highlighting that price increases will likely be partially transferred to consumers. Notably, Canada is identified as the only other country expected to experience a similar inflation increase of over 2%.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, China's consumer prices fell by -0.7% year-over-year in February, indicating a deflationary trend. This marks the second monthly decline in Core CPI inflation by -0.1% in over 15 years. The GDP deflator also dropped by -0.8% in Q4 2024, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of decline. These trends are critical for traders as they may influence global market dynamics and commodity prices, presenting both risks and opportunities for strategic positioning.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, inflation indicators are on the rise as the Philadelphia Fed Prices Paid index increased by 8.6 points in February, reaching its highest level since October 2022. Concurrently, the NY Empire State Prices Paid index rose by 11.1 points to 40.2, marking the highest since March 2023. These regional inflation measures indicate potential upward pressure on consumer prices, which traders should monitor for impacts on interest rate expectations and currency valuations.